There can be no real individual freedom in the presence of economic insecurity.
by Chester Bowles (1901 - 1986)

Vì sao “giả thuyết thị trường hiệu quả” không thể đúng

Từ năm 1900, trong luận án tiến sĩ của mình, nhà toán học Luis Bachelier (1870–1946) đã nghiên cứu biến động giá cổ phiếu, và các công thức định giá option, dựa trên chuyển động ngẫu nhiên. (Bachelier được coi là người đầu tiên nghiên cứu các tính chất toán học của quá trình . . . → Read More: Vì sao “giả thuyết thị trường hiệu quả” không thể đúng

Định lý kinh doanh chênh lệch giá

Tôi thấy định lý kinh doanh chênh lệch giá (arbitrage theorem) trong một số sách viết khá phức tạp, nên thử viết lại chứng minh đơn giản. Mọi người thủ đọc xem có đúng không và có dễ hiểu hơn không

Continue reading Định lý kinh doanh chênh lệch giá

Summer School on Mathematical Methods in Finance and Economy, Hanoi, 06/2010

(unofficial anouncement)

Summer School on Mathematical Methods in Finance and Economy

31/May – 04/June/2010

Hanoi Center for Financial and Industrial Mathematics

Hanoi National University of Education

Targeted audience

Graduate students and researchers in finance, economics, and mathematics

People working in the financial industry (investment, insurance, …)

Programme

This School will consist of 4 main intensive minicourses (about 6 hours per course), computer sessions, and some research talks.

The four minicourses are:

Time Series Applied to Finance, by Anne Van Hems (Professor at Toulouse Business School)

Non-Parametric Models With Applications To Production Frontiers, by Michel Simoni (Research Director at INRA)

Scoring, by Christine Thomas-Agnan (Professor at Toulouse School of Economics)

Quantitative Portfolio Management, by Nguyen Tien Zung (Professor at Toulouse Institute of Mathematics, and Scientific Director of HCFIM)

Computer sessions will be animated by CNRS research engineer Thibault Laurent

Continue reading Summer School on Mathematical Methods in Finance and Economy, Hanoi, 06/2010

Báo cáo Lê Đăng Doanh về tình hình VN (2004)

Ông Lê Đăng Doanh là một nhà kinh tế lỗi lạc của Việt Nam. Đây là báo cáo của ông trước Bô Chính Trị vào 11/2004. Tuy nó đã cũ 5 năm, nhưng vẫn chứa đựng rất nhiều điều nóng hổi và bổ ích trong đó. Tôi post lại đây để lưu trữ, và giới thiệu cho những ai chưa đọc thì rất nên đọc.

Continue reading Báo cáo Lê Đăng Doanh về tình hình VN (2004)

Playing the adult stem cell revolution

Just a quick note:

Mesenchymal Stem Cells (MSC), which can be taken from adult donors and are universally compatible (no controversy, unlike embryonic stem cells) have been tested in labs for maybe 10 years now, and studies have shown that MSC can help fight a multitude of health problems (diabetes, cardiac, Crohn’s, cerebral, cancer, . . . → Read More: Playing the adult stem cell revolution

Get poor quick vs. get rich slow: 2-asset portfolio theory

Many people jumped in to the stock market hoping to get rich quickly, but instead of getting rich, they burned most or all of their money. Even the legendary speculator Jesse Livermore, who made millions of dollar on the stock market a century ago (he would have been a billionaire in today’s dollars), committed suicide in the end after he lost it all. The number 1 reason for bankruptcy on the stock market is not bad market analysis, but bad risk management. You can be right most of the times, and still go under if you don’t manage your risks well. On the other hand, as unbelievable as it may sound, with a proper risk management you can actually make money on the stock market  in the long term, even if you know nothing about the direction of the market !

Continue reading Get poor quick vs. get rich slow: 2-asset portfolio theory

All Warfare is based on deception

or so Sun Tzu said, and the stock market is a war ! If you keep that in mind, then maybe you will be able to understand many asburd things on Wall Street, and avoid being “killed” by the “sharks”.

Nowadays, only about 2% of all trading on the stock markets are real investing  (long term, fundamentals-oriented, “cooperative”, “win-win”), the other 98% is a zero-sum game, where for some person to win, another person must lose. When you enter the stock market, you enter a war, where a multitude of adversaires are there trying to kill you (that is to take all the money they can take from you). And how do they do that ? By deception, of course !

Continue reading All Warfare is based on deception

Why the “efficient market theory” is bullshit ?

The efficient market theory, which states that the stock market moves randomly (because all the available information about the stocks are already factored in the price, and future movements depend solely on random future events that are not known yet), has a very strong following among “ivory tower economists”, even though it has been . . . → Read More: Why the “efficient market theory” is bullshit ?

Technical analysis: rocket pattern

I mentioned the “rocket pattern” in the previous post about Huron (HURN). So what is a “rocket” (in TA) anyway ?

A “rocket” consists of a “rocket launch” (a day with a huge jump up in the stock price, due to a very significant news that changes the prospects of the company completely and that takes a long period of time to fully play out), followed by a robust up-trend during the following months.

In order to have a “rocket”, the news must be really outstanding and its impact long-lasting.

Continue reading Technical analysis: rocket pattern

Mind the gap !

If you are a day trader,then you want to find stocks with a big intraday momentum.

One of the ways to do it is to check for opening gaps, i.e. stocks whose opening price jumps significantly from the previous closing price, due to a news item which changes the perceived value of the stock completely.

The gap can usually be seen in premarket already, but in general avoid trading the premarket. Instead, wait to see the opening price, and the intraday momentum after the opening. If, for example, 5-10 minutes after the opening, the price is moving up and higher than the opening price, then the momentum is up and it may be OK to go long. On the other hand, if the price falls below the opening prie, then the momentum is down, and it’s better to go short. (Don’t look at the direction of the gap, but at the direction of the price in the first 5-10 minutes after the opening !)

Continue reading Mind the gap !

Stocks & Options

Starting today, I’ll write about investing in stocks and options in the world markets (mainly the NY stock market)

I have been interested in the stock market for about 12 years now (though I have never had any big amount of money to really invest, just enough to trade a bit), and have made . . . → Read More: Stocks & Options

Vietnam in financial trouble ?

US News & World Reports, 20/Apr/2009

See: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/10-Countries-in-Deep-usnews-14971805.html

Vietnam is identified as one of the 10 countries in deep trouble. The others are: Mexico, Pakistan, Ukraine, Venezuela, Argentina, Latvia, Croatia, Kazakhstan, Belarus

Excerpt:

Vietnam. Unlike many of the other countries on this list, Vietnam has had some good news recently. The Asian Development Bank . . . → Read More: Vietnam in financial trouble ?

TT Toán Tài chính và Công nghiệp: buổi hội thảo 28/03

Sáng thứ bẩy, 28/03 Trung Tâm Toán tài chính và công nghiệp Hà nội sẽ tổ chức một hội thảo nhỏ về toán tài chính, với múc đích ra mắt trung tâm và thiết lập các quan hệ hợp tác.

Địa Điểm: Phòng Hội Thảo, Tòa Nhà Thư Viện, ĐHSPHN, đường Xuân Thủy, Hà . . . → Read More: TT Toán Tài chính và Công nghiệp: buổi hội thảo 28/03