Solar companies

Some spreadsheets about global solar companies, provided by an investor (odyd12) on yahoo message board:

Overcapacity ?

38GW module capacity by end of 2011 vs. demand 22GW in 2011 (58% of capacity, vs. 75% in 2010 and 66% in 2009)

24GW capacity in 2010, capacity expansion 58% from 2010 to 2011, while he market will not grow as fast.

Average capacity in 2011 = 31GW vs. demand 22GW, utilization rate = 71%, i.e. producers will run at only 71% capacity in the average.

Oversupply in PV cells:

PV cell production capacities closed on a year-end total of 36.6 GW, more than double estimates of the 2010 market. Cell manufacturers predict further growth in 2011, with individual estimates that total 51.4 GW during 2011, and projected capacity expansions which will bring the industry to 66.6 GW.However, with market analysts predicting modest or even flat growth in PV markets in 2011, even a fraction of that growth will result in a profound oversupply.

Consequences of this oversupply ?

* It will create financial difficulties for every player. However, strong players will survive. (In 2010 there was already an oversupply of cells, but companies like JASO still made record sales and profits).

* It will kill higher-cost companies, only low-cost high-quality companies will survive. Many smaller players will have to give up. Consolidation, M&A in the industry.

* Cost barrier to new entrants (not that the technology is difficult to copy, but it’s difficult to achieve low costs and make a profit).

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