Vietnam in financial trouble ?

US News & World Reports, 20/Apr/2009

See: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/10-Countries-in-Deep-usnews-14971805.html

Vietnam is identified as one of the 10 countries in deep trouble. The others are: Mexico, Pakistan, Ukraine, Venezuela, Argentina, Latvia, Croatia, Kazakhstan, Belarus

Excerpt:

Vietnam. Unlike many of the other countries on this list, Vietnam has had some good news recently. The Asian Development Bank forecasted Vietnam’s economic growth at 4.5 percent for the next year, the highest in Southeast Asia. Yet the country just registered its slowest economic growth in a decade. A survey found that 46 percent of Vietnamese were afraid of unemployment in January, up from 9 percent in September. Both Moody’s and S&P have a negative outlook for Vietnam’s sovereign bonds. The price of its sovereign derivatives has almost doubled in the past year. Vietnam falls into the riskiest of the five tiers as rated by AM Best. In particular, the firm identifies Vietnam’s financial system, plagued by “relatively poor infrastructure and cumbersome bureaucracy,” as “very high” risk.

(My remark: The 4.5 growth rat forecast by  ADB or IMF is “too optimistic”. Vietnam will be lucky to show a growth of 2-3% this year.)

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